Federal Reserve

Hawkish FED board in 2014? Maybe not

The FOMC will have new members in 2014. After the Senate approved Ms. Yellen’s nomination as FED Chair, other changes are upcoming including the rotation of regional bank Presidents and the vacancy replacement of Governors Duke and Raskin. President Obama announced that will nominate former Bank of Israel Governor Mr. Stanley Fischer to fill Ms. Yellen’s vacancy. Deputy Treasury Secretary Ms. Jael Brainard will also face Senate confirmation to fill Ms. Duke’s seat, while current FED Governor Mr. Jerome H. Powell will endure renomination after seating since 2012 for an unexpired term that ends in January 31st 2014.

Tom Essaye of the 7:00’s report wrote in Forbes Magazine that the board will turn hawk in 2014. I expect more hawkish members compared to the 2013 board but the median voter will likely continue a dove. Thus, I think there is a very high probability that the board will continue dove, but a hawkish stance should not be ruled out. It is almost certain that the FOMC will continue tappering, but I argue it will do so under the same pace that 2013 FOMC would have done it.  Let us see why and why that matters.

The FOMC follows a majority rule voting system. If we assume that Governor’s preferences can be summarized in one dimension of Hawk-Dove ideology (high-low inflation tolerance), then according to the median voter theorem, the expected outcome should be that of the median voter– that is, the ideology of the voter whose monetary stance lies in the median of all decision-makers’ preferences. Using this methodology, we can forecast the monetary stance (hawk-dove ideology) of all past and current FOMC board members according to their casted votes. The methodology also identifies the median voter and thus the ideology of the board at large.

Figure 1 shows the preferences (or ideal points) of the 2013 FOMC board. The ideological points represent where each of board members lied in the monetary-ideology spectrum (dove-hawk), based on their votes at the FOMC. The lines represent the statistical confidence at 95%. The figure shows that before Ms. Raskin and Ms. Duke left the board, the median voter lied somewhere in between Governors Stein and Duke ideal points (highlighted), although the ideological differences in the hawk-dove spectrum of 8 of the 12 FOMC members were  rather inexistent. Indeed, a board with shared pivotal positions.

Figure 1: 2013 FOMC board prior Duke and Raskin’s vacancy (January to July)

Plot1

After Ms. Duke and Ms. Raskin left the board, the median voter lied somewhere between Mr. Tarullo and Mr. Stein, which nevertheless is not statistically different from the prior median voter position. The median voter position is highlighted:

Figure 2: 2013 FOMC after Duke and Raskin left the board (September to December)

Plot3

The median voter should change in January’s Board.Boston FED Eric Rosengren, Chicago FED Charles Evans, St. Louis FED James Bullard and Kansas FED Esther George will leave the board as their rotational term expires. Rosengren and Evans were the most dovish members of the 2013 FOMC, while Ms. George was the hawkish voice according to our ideal point estimates (and in line with George’s anti-QE3 votes). Minneapolis FED Mr. Kocherlakota, Cleveland FED Ms. Pianalto, Dallas FED Mr. Fisher and Philadelphia FED Mr. Plosser will fill the rotational vacancies, which should shift the median decision to Ms. Yellen– who is slightly more hawkish than Mr. Tarullo and Mr. Stein but not statistically different to conclude that the board is now hawk (Figure 3).

Figure 3: 2014 FOMC prior Senate’s confirmation of Fischer and Brainard (January)

Plot2

After January the board MIGHT turn hawkish and there is a chance that hawkish Mr. Plosser will become the median voter.  We know that Obama will nominate Mr. Stanley Fischer, Ms. Brainard and renominate Mr. Powell. After the Senate changed filibuster rules for Presidential nominees, all three nominees should easily pass Senate’s inquisition. We do not know (yet) Mr. Fischer and Ms. Brainard’s ideological positions (or monetary stance), which leaves us with conjectures and assumptions about their positions based on public announcements and their background.

Without knowing both nominees’ ideal points, we can guess what could happen to the median voter in four possible scenarios: i) both Fischer and Brainard are hawks; ii) both are doves; iii) at least one of them is dove; iv) one is a moderate and the other a non-dove. Under scenarios i) and iv) the board turns hawkish.

Scenario 1: Both Doves. Dovish Board

If Fischer and Brainard’s ideal points locate somewhere to the left of Yellen (or more dovish than Yellen), the median voter will continue with the current dove stance. If they are more dovish than Stein (Figure 4), Stein would become the new median voter. If they locate between Stein and Yellen, then the new median voter would lie between Stein and Yellen which however is not statistically different. That is, two dove members would bring a dove board despite hawk bank presidents.

Figure 4: Dovish nominees means dovish board

Plot4

Scenario 2: Both Hawks. Hawkish Board. Plosser is the median voter

If both Fischer and Brainard are hawks–more hawk than Plosser– then the board would turn hawk as the median voter would shift from Yellen to Plosser. This scenario is somehow odd as it’s contra-intuitive that Obama nominates a Dovish Chair (Yellen) but nominates two hawks to make Plosser (and not Yellen) the median voter. I would say 5% chance this happens.

Figure 5: Hawkish nominees means hawkish board

Plot5

Scenario 3: At least one dove. Dovish board. Yellen continues as the median voter

If Obama decides to nominate only one Dove (that is, near Yellen-Stein’s ideology), Ms. Yellen will continue as the median voter regardless the position of the other member. The non-dovish nominee can be as hawk as Fisher– it wouldn’t matter– the median voter would be dove Ms. Yellen (Figure 6).

Figure 6: At least one dove and the board is dove

Plot6

Scenario 4: One moderate and one non-dove (either moderate or Hawk). Hawkish board (but how hawkish?)

If Obama nominates one moderate– someone between Yellen and Plosser’s ideal points– and one non-dove, then the median voter would lie between Yellen and Plosser and would correspond to the ideal point of the moderate new member. One moderate, but How moderate? The board would become more hawkish but with a high ideological room– it may turn just slightly hawkish (close to Yellen) or very hawkish (close to Plosser). If both members are moderate, then the median voter would be the most dovish of both.

Figure 7: At least one moderate and the board is hawkish. But how hawkish?

Plot7

So what?

This odd analysis should point towards a 2014 dove board. I see scenario 3 (at least one of the new boards is dove) highly possible. My bet would be that at least former Deputy Secretary of the Tresury is more dovish than (or as dovish as) Ms. Yellen, as it should be very likely that President Obama asked Yellen’s advice on who to nominate and thus Ms. Yellen should have presumably advised to nominate someone close to her ideal point. That should rule-out Scenario 2 (hawk board) but not Scenario 4, which I think should be the real risk scenario.

There is literature that suggests that monetary boards– specially monetary Chairs– hate disagreement. Under that story, the FOMC should turn hawk regardless the median voter’s position as Ms. Yellen would avoid confrontation with her hawk peers. There is not statistical evidence to proof or reject that assumption, but from my roll call database it is true that disagreement is rather uncommon in the FOMC but it is also true that it depends on the Chairperson’s leadership— if she prefers to maintain congeniality or to pursue her ideal point. That is something that needs to be addressed further.

President Obama still has to nominate Ms. Raskin’s replacement while rumors indicate that dove Mr. Stein will leave the board to Harvard on May. Let’s touch base on March.

Advertisements